About

Paimio Research is an independent research publication on real estate developers as businesses: how they sell, what they have pre-sold, what sits in the backlog, how they fund themselves, and when the revenue will actually arrive.

Developers are the part of real estate that is easiest to misread from the outside. The money arrives before the building, and the accounts arrive after it. In between, most of the information comes from people with something to sell. Brokers are paid on transactions, consultancies are paid by developers, and sell-side coverage is thin. Paimio Research is paid only by its readers. No developer, broker or platform has any commercial relationship with this publication, and every number published here can be traced to a registry, a filing or a stated method.

The work rests on three things: public sales records, where a market keeps them, mapped project by project to the companies that report to shareholders; company filings and disclosures; and field work, because buildings can be visited and launch prices can be checked. From these come the letters, the company reports, and nowcasts of developer sales and revenue published before results, with the record kept in public either way.

Everything written here is free to read. Professionals who need the data and models behind the letters can read more under For professionals.

About the founder

Emil Hartela founded Paimio Research. He is a Finnish analyst and the fifth generation of a construction family. Before this publication he spent years building revenue nowcasts from public data for Nordic listed companies, work that is archived at emilhartela.com, with a forecast record that can be checked against the reported numbers. Paimio applies the same method to the companies he grew up around: the ones that buy land, sell homes before they exist, and build them.

Why Paimio

Paimio is a small town in southwest Finland, and the name of a tuberculosis sanatorium completed there in 1933. Alvar Aalto designed it; it made his career, and in 2026 UNESCO inscribed it as a World Heritage site. The reinforced concrete that made Aalto's design stand, including the cantilevered sun terraces the building is known for, was calculated by a young engineer named Emil Henriksson, who changed his family name that year to Hartela and founded the construction company the Hartela family still runs. Emil is named after both of them: Emil for the engineer, Alvar for the architect.

The architect got the fame. The family did the load calculations. That is roughly the division of labor this publication aims for: someone else's skyline, independent mathematics underneath it.

Questions and corrections: research@paimioresearch.com. Corrections are published, not buried.